Explore the intriguing trend of Brazilian UFC fighters excelling on home soil and how recent years have shown a shift in this dynamic.
| Factor | Description |
|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Brazilians have a 64% win rate in home UFC fights. |
| Betting Odds | Typically at -140, indicating favoritism. |
| Market Shift | Recent years show a decline in the betting value for Brazilian fighters. |
The Brazil ian UFC Home Advantage: A Closer Look
Brazil has long been recognized as a formidable battleground for foreign fighters in the UFC. The challenges range from the intense local crowd to the logistical difficulties faced by the visiting athletes. These factors contribute to what many refer to as the ‘home-cage advantage’.
Historical Performance
From 2011 to 2023, Brazil ian fighters have shown remarkable success when competing on home soil against international opponents. The statistics reveal a compelling story:
-
Overall Record: Brazil ian fighters have amassed a record of 225 wins to 127 losses. This translates to a winning percentage of approximately 64%.
-
Yearly Breakdown: Except for 2019, Brazil ian fighters maintained a winning record each year. The peak was in 2011 with an outstanding 88% win rate during UFC 134 in Rio de Janeiro.
| Year | Brazil ian Fighters’ Record | Win Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 7-1 | 88% |
| 2019 | 12-12 | 50% |
| 2023 | TBD | TBD |
Betting and Market Expectations
The betting odds often favor Brazil ian fighters, typically positioned at -140. This indicates that they are expected to win more often than not. However, examining whether these fighters meet or exceed these expectations is crucial. Analysis of the closing odds, adjusted for vigorish, reveals that from 2011 to 2018, Brazil ians exceeded market expectations by achieving 20 more wins than anticipated.
However, a shift occurred in 2019. For the first time, Brazil ian fighters did not meet the expected win rate, marking a potential change in either market perception or the quality of match-ups.
The Shift in Trends
The years 2019, 2020, and 2023 have shown that the betting value on Brazil ian fighters has diminished. This could be due to the market adjusting to the previously observed home-cage advantage or improvements in how matches are set up.
